Month: March 2021

This is our 50th edition on COVID-19. While more than 25% of the U.S. population has now been at least partially vaccinated (including two-thirds of persons above age 65!), significant differentials exist by race. Asian, Black, and Hispanic/Latino subgroups have been under-vaccinated relative to each subgroup’s share of the total population, with the White population receiving a larger share of vaccinations than their share of the population. We show that these disparities exist in nearly every state where vaccinations have been reported by race. We also show the nationwide daily progression of the seven day average in COVID cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and vaccinations throughout the pandemic, as well as per capita cases and deaths by state.

This edition provides tabulations of monthly COVID cases and deaths at the state level throughout the pandemic and quantifies the past week’s trends. The United States reported the highest number of new monthly cases in December 2020 and experienced the highest number of COVID deaths in January 2021. Newly reported COVID cases and deaths have since declined in subsequent months

As of March 17, 111.6 million vaccine doses have been given out at the state level. As a result, 22.2% of the U.S. population has now been at least partially vaccinated with a COVID vaccine, and 12.0% is now fully vaccinated.

This week’s 5 Slide Edition presents our estimates of how many more deaths have occurred in 2020 and 2021 than would have in normal times. Our findings are striking: Between April 2020 and January 2021, total deaths in the U.S. were 25% above the amount that would have occurred based on each month’s average deaths across 2017 through 2019. Our cumulative excess death estimate through January 2021, 591,492, is approximately 164,000 (or about 38.3%) above the number of COVID attributed deaths during this ten month timeframe.

We also compare 2020 deaths with prior years by race, finding that minority populations suffered the largest percentage increases in deaths during 2020 compared to historical averages. We also find that the 25–44 age bracket experienced the sharpest percentage increase in total deaths in 2020 compared to its 2015-2019 historical average, followed by the 65-74 and the 75-84 age cohorts.

This edition provides tabulations of weekly trends in case and death numbers, finding that both are trending downward in recent weeks. The 7-day rolling average for new daily cases has declined for four straight days since February 27, after four consecutive days of case increases. The new case average has now declined for 46 out of the last 50 days, and the weekly average for new daily deaths has fallen for six of the last seven weeks.

This week, nearly 14 million vaccine doses were given out this week—approximately 10% higher than the prior week’s total. 79.5 million vaccine doses have been received in total as of March 3. Worldwide, nearly 274 million doses of the vaccine have been given worldwide– 29% of which have been in the US.