5 Slide Series

This edition of our 5 Slide Series examines excess deaths at the state level during the pandemic. Taking the difference of average monthly deaths during the pandemic and a pre-pandemic average, we find that states in the South and Southwest have experienced the largest percentage increase in deaths above normal. In addition, despite experiencing a particularly deadly first wave in the spring of 2020, New England states have collectively experienced the lowest number of excess deaths per capita; we find that 5 of the 11 states with the least number of excess deaths per capita are in this region. Second, we estimate excess deaths among different cohorts, including age, race/ethnicity, and cause of death. For age, we find that the 25–44 age bracket experienced the sharpest percentage increase in all-cause observed deaths in 2020 and 2021 compared to its 2015-2019 historical average. For race, we find that Hispanics experienced the sharpest percentage increase in all-cause observed deaths in 2020 and 2021, followed by American Indians/Alaska Natives and Asians. Lastly, we use cause of death data to confirm that deaths from Alzheimer’s disease/dementia increased the most during the pandemic, followed by deaths from circulatory disease. This latter finding dovetails with our February 4th edition, which showed that COVID deaths have likely been substantially undercounted. The spike in Alzheimer’s deaths could involve COVID death categorization dynamics.

This edition examines the impact of the pandemic on overall deaths in 2020 and 2021. Comparing excess deaths (deaths above the pre-COVID annual average) at the national level from April 2020 to December 2021, we find that annual deaths in the US were more than one-fifth higher in 2020 and 2021 than they were on average between 2017 and 2019. We calculate 1.09 million excess deaths have occurred during the pandemic to date, which is about 264,000 (32%) above the number of COVID-confirmed deaths during this time (831,000). We also find the population-adjusted per capita death rate increased by 18% during the pandemic years compared to the pre-pandemic baseline – well above the second largest annual death increase in the last twenty years experienced between 2014 and 2015 (2.5%).

This edition reexamines COVID case, death, and vaccination trends in the wake of the new (potentially more contagious) Omicron variant. Cases and deaths in 2021 have already eclipsed 2020 figures. More than 28 million cases have been reported in 2021 – about 40% higher than in 2020. Nearly 408,000 deaths have been reported so far throughout 2021 – well above the nearly 360,000 reported in 2020.

This edition revisits pediatric COVID-19 trends in the United States. Schools have now been opened for several weeks, providing an opportunity to assess the initial effects of student gatherings in classrooms. We observe decreasing, albeit still extremely high, pediatric case counts during the week ending in September 23, with children composing 27% of all new cases – more than double their share reported during the first week of January. Around 200,000 new pediatric cases are being reported each day.

In this edition of our 5 Slide Series, we return to presenting COVID death trends, as the pandemic’s recent resurgence merits significant attention. Average daily deaths across the prior 7-day period were 361 on June 13, 274 on July 13, 650 on August 13, and 1,827 on September 13. Every two days, more Americans are currently dying of COVID than perished in the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. We break down these death numbers by state political lean, finding that states with Republican governors and majority Trump 2020 vote share have much higher per capita death rates, and compose a disproportionate share of national deaths compared to their share of the population.

This edition provides a weekly update of COVID cases, deaths, and vaccinations, including county, state, and national views of vaccinations. As of this week, the U.S. has now given roughly 250 million COVID vaccine doses. 44.5% of the population is now vaccinated with at least one dose and 32% is now fully vaccinated, including 83% of seniors receiving at least one dose and 70% receiving full vaccinations. We provide a week-over-week view of vaccination rates by state, as well as a series of county-level maps that shows the variation in vaccination uptake across the country.

This edition provides an international comparison of COVID vaccination rates across continents. As of April 28, over 1.08 billion COVID vaccinations have been given in all countries since the start of the pandemic. Nearly 578 million people have been partially vaccinated and nearly 254 million people have been fully vaccinated. Nearly one in five of all vaccinations given thus far have been in Asia, followed by one in four in North America and one in five in Europe. Internationally, 13.8 vaccinations have been given per 100 persons and just 3.2% of the world population is fully vaccinated.  The highest share of full vaccination among the population has occurred in North America (18%) and the lowest in Oceania (0.1%), Africa (0.4%), and Asia (1.3%).

This week’s edition of our 5 Slide Series provides updates of weekly trends in COVID cases, deaths, and vaccinations at both the state and national level. We show both positive and concerning news from the front of the battle against the pandemic. First, both confirmed cases and deaths have declined week-over-week (April 14-20 vs April 7-April 13), but average cases for the month of April have been 15% higher than their March monthly average. New daily deaths, meanwhile, have plummeted to a low not seen in months. Deaths for the month of April have so far averaged 674 a day—37% and 70% below the March and February monthly averages, respectively.