5 Slide Series

This edition provides an overview of how COVID cases and deaths have changed over the past month. New COVID cases for the first 11 days of April were up 16.3% and new deaths were down 53.7% compared to the first 11 days of March. The increased case volume is concerning and the seven day average in daily deaths has flattened out near 1,000 during the past week.

This is our 50th edition on COVID-19. While more than 25% of the U.S. population has now been at least partially vaccinated (including two-thirds of persons above age 65!), significant differentials exist by race. Asian, Black, and Hispanic/Latino subgroups have been under-vaccinated relative to each subgroup’s share of the total population, with the White population receiving a larger share of vaccinations than their share of the population. We show that these disparities exist in nearly every state where vaccinations have been reported by race. We also show the nationwide daily progression of the seven day average in COVID cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and vaccinations throughout the pandemic, as well as per capita cases and deaths by state.

This edition provides tabulations of monthly COVID cases and deaths at the state level throughout the pandemic and quantifies the past week’s trends. The United States reported the highest number of new monthly cases in December 2020 and experienced the highest number of COVID deaths in January 2021. Newly reported COVID cases and deaths have since declined in subsequent months

As of March 17, 111.6 million vaccine doses have been given out at the state level. As a result, 22.2% of the U.S. population has now been at least partially vaccinated with a COVID vaccine, and 12.0% is now fully vaccinated.

This week’s 5 Slide Edition presents our estimates of how many more deaths have occurred in 2020 and 2021 than would have in normal times. Our findings are striking: Between April 2020 and January 2021, total deaths in the U.S. were 25% above the amount that would have occurred based on each month’s average deaths across 2017 through 2019. Our cumulative excess death estimate through January 2021, 591,492, is approximately 164,000 (or about 38.3%) above the number of COVID attributed deaths during this ten month timeframe.

We also compare 2020 deaths with prior years by race, finding that minority populations suffered the largest percentage increases in deaths during 2020 compared to historical averages. We also find that the 25–44 age bracket experienced the sharpest percentage increase in total deaths in 2020 compared to its 2015-2019 historical average, followed by the 65-74 and the 75-84 age cohorts.

This edition provides tabulations of weekly trends in case and death numbers, finding that both are trending downward in recent weeks. The 7-day rolling average for new daily cases has declined for four straight days since February 27, after four consecutive days of case increases. The new case average has now declined for 46 out of the last 50 days, and the weekly average for new daily deaths has fallen for six of the last seven weeks.

This week, nearly 14 million vaccine doses were given out this week—approximately 10% higher than the prior week’s total. 79.5 million vaccine doses have been received in total as of March 3. Worldwide, nearly 274 million doses of the vaccine have been given worldwide– 29% of which have been in the US.

This edition quantifies the recent weeks’ decline in new daily COVID cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. The seven-day rolling average for new daily cases fell for 42 straight days from January 12 through February 22. New COVID deaths decreased 6.7% this week (February 17-23) from the previous week (February 10-16). Also, new weekly COVID-19 cases in nursing homes have declined drastically since vaccines began being administered – with an overall 85% decline in new weekly cases occurring in the past week relative to mid-December.

This week, 12.7 million vaccine doses were administered, which is about 36% higher than last week’s total. As of February 24, approximately 65.5 million vaccine doses have been received. In all states, at least 10% of the population has now received at least one dose. 13.6% of the U.S. population has received at least one dose of the vaccine, and 6.2% is now fully vaccinated.

This edition conveys some relatively positive news including that daily new cases are down more than two-thirds (68%) since January 12, and the 7-day rolling average for new daily cases has now fallen for 36 straight days.

In addition, this edition assesses case trends by grouping the US into four regions (Midwest, Northeast, South, and West). Both the Midwest and the South have experienced at least two-thirds of their COVID deaths to date since October 1, while in the Northeast 41% of its deaths occurred during this timeframe. Also, more than 66% of all confirmed cases so far have occurred since October 1, compared to 26% prior to June 15 and 8% from June 16 – September 30.

Finally, we provide a weekly update of vaccinations. This week, states administered 9.3 million vaccine doses, which is about 20% lower than last week’s total.

This edition tabulates COVID death and case progression among the 25 most populous U.S. counties (which collectively are home to 21% of the country’s residents). We’ve also update vaccination data by state – as of February 10, all states have administered one or more doses of the vaccine to at least 10% of their population.

This edition of the 5 Slide Series provides more information than we usually include.  Given that we are now a year into the pandemic, many of our tabulations contrast what occurred during the first 6 months with the most recent 6 months – looking at confirmed cases and deaths by race, age cohort, gender, and nursing home residence.   We also assess US COVID death rates relative to those in all other large countries, compare death rates between Democratic-leaning and Republican-leaning states, and present the past week’s vaccination trends in each state. 

This edition of our 5 Slide Series compares the first 6 months of the COVID pandemic with the second 6 months in terms of cases, deaths, and mortality rates at a state level. The US reported a 410% increase in cases and a 91% increase in COVID-attributed deaths during the second 6 months of the pandemic. The national COVID mortality rate decreased from 3.52% during the first 6 months to 1.32% during the second 6 months. If the mortality rate had remained at 3.52%, the US would have experienced approximately 467,178 more deaths to date.

As of January 27, more than 24.5 million doses of the COVID vaccine have been administered. There was a 53.6% increase in administered doses of the COVID Vaccine during this past week (January 21 – 27) versus the previous week (January 14 – 20).