5 Slide Series

This edition of our COVID 5 Slide Series focuses on the past week’s trends in COVID cases, deaths, and administered vaccines by state. Over the last week (January 14 – 20), there were 21,280 new COVID-attributed deaths, 1,351,276 new cases, and 5,581,715 doses of the vaccine administered. The US moved from 300,000 total COVID deaths to 400,000 in just 36 days. One potentially encouraging trend is that the most recent week’s death total, while the second-worst week we have experienced, is 9% lower than the prior week and could represent the beginning of a much-needed prolonged downturn.

This edition provides state-level detail of the past week’s very high COVID death toll, and also shows the accumulation of vaccinations (conveying first and second doses where reported).

This edition tabulates COVID statistics by state and month, quantifying December’s upward spike in COVID cases and deaths. We have also provided a state-by-state look at early COVID vaccination rates, and a comparison of death rates between the USA and other nations.

Key findings from this edition, which tabulates monthly cases and deaths by state, are summarized below:

– We expect that more COVID deaths will occur in December than in any prior month in the US overall and in 33 states. December’s new COVID cases are at record highs nationally and in 35 states.
– The 3,400 new COVID deaths reported on December 16, are nearly 200 above the next-highest day the US has experienced to date.
– One positive development is that the percentage of monthly new cases resulting in death is far lower in more recent months (approximately 1%) than was the case during April and May (approximately 6%).
– Multiple points of research, including data we present herein, compellingly demonstrate that overall deaths in the USA during 2020 are far higher than occurred during 2019.

This edition looks at COVID deaths in each state by month, including an extrapolated estimate for November. We estimate that at least 21 states will experience their largest monthly COVID death volume this month (November). Nationwide, 44% more COVID deaths occurred from November 1-15 than occurred from October 1-15.

Our COVID tabulations this week looked at the weekly number of new cases that have occurred since mid-March, a timeframe spanning 31 weeks, and identified within each state where the most recent week (defined as October 5-12) ranked in terms of new confirmed cases. In 21 states, October 5-12 represented the highest volume of weekly new cases the state has experienced. In another four states, this past week brought their second-highest new case volume.

This edition of our 5 Slide Series provides a state level analysis of monthly new cases and deaths over the course of the pandemic. Nationally, new cases and deaths decreased in September as compared to August, but many states experienced their peak in September. The percentage of confirmed cases in the US represented just 2.2% of the entire population, and 2.9% of these cases resulted in death.

This edition of the 5 Slide Series tabulates new tests, cases, and deaths per 100,000 population at a state level to examine how the COVID-19 pandemic has shifted September 1- 15 versus August 1 – 15. Nationally, trends have mostly moved in a favorable direction. During the first half of September relative to the first half of August, confirmed cases and deaths have decreased by more than 20%, and positive tests as a percent of all administered tests during each timeframe have decreased from 7.1% to 5.2%. However, several states have trended in an adverse direction and reported an increase in new cases, deaths, and positive tests September 1 – 15 versus August 1 – 15.

This edition analyzes COVID-19 death trends in the United States at a state and county level over the most recent two weeks of the pandemic. Nationally, new COVID deaths decreased by 19% September 3 – 10 versus August 27 – September 3.

This edition compares the monthly progression of the COVID-19 death rate in the United States to other countries that have been hit hardest by the pandemic. Additionally, this edition shows new COVID cases and deaths per 100,000 in the United States, March through August.