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5 Slide Series

Our 5 Slide Series allows us to regularly present objective analyses and trends on issues we believe are of interest and share our findings through data tabulations and visualizations.

This edition tabulates COVID death and case progression among the 25 most populous U.S. counties (which collectively are home to 21% of the country’s residents). We’ve also update vaccination data by state – as of February 10, all states have administered one or more doses of the vaccine to at least 10% of their population.

This edition of the 5 Slide Series provides more information than we usually include.  Given that we are now a year into the pandemic, many of our tabulations contrast what occurred during the first 6 months with the most recent 6 months – looking at confirmed cases and deaths by race, age cohort, gender, and nursing home residence.   We also assess US COVID death rates relative to those in all other large countries, compare death rates between Democratic-leaning and Republican-leaning states, and present the past week’s vaccination trends in each state. 

This edition of our 5 Slide Series compares the first 6 months of the COVID pandemic with the second 6 months in terms of cases, deaths, and mortality rates at a state level. The US reported a 410% increase in cases and a 91% increase in COVID-attributed deaths during the second 6 months of the pandemic. The national COVID mortality rate decreased from 3.52% during the first 6 months to 1.32% during the second 6 months. If the mortality rate had remained at 3.52%, the US would have experienced approximately 467,178 more deaths to date.

As of January 27, more than 24.5 million doses of the COVID vaccine have been administered. There was a 53.6% increase in administered doses of the COVID Vaccine during this past week (January 21 – 27) versus the previous week (January 14 – 20).

This edition of our COVID 5 Slide Series focuses on the past week’s trends in COVID cases, deaths, and administered vaccines by state. Over the last week (January 14 – 20), there were 21,280 new COVID-attributed deaths, 1,351,276 new cases, and 5,581,715 doses of the vaccine administered. The US moved from 300,000 total COVID deaths to 400,000 in just 36 days. One potentially encouraging trend is that the most recent week’s death total, while the second-worst week we have experienced, is 9% lower than the prior week and could represent the beginning of a much-needed prolonged downturn.

This edition provides state-level detail of the past week’s very high COVID death toll, and also shows the accumulation of vaccinations (conveying first and second doses where reported).

This edition tabulates COVID statistics by state and month, quantifying December’s upward spike in COVID cases and deaths. We have also provided a state-by-state look at early COVID vaccination rates, and a comparison of death rates between the USA and other nations.

Key findings from this edition, which tabulates monthly cases and deaths by state, are summarized below:

– We expect that more COVID deaths will occur in December than in any prior month in the US overall and in 33 states. December’s new COVID cases are at record highs nationally and in 35 states.
– The 3,400 new COVID deaths reported on December 16, are nearly 200 above the next-highest day the US has experienced to date.
– One positive development is that the percentage of monthly new cases resulting in death is far lower in more recent months (approximately 1%) than was the case during April and May (approximately 6%).
– Multiple points of research, including data we present herein, compellingly demonstrate that overall deaths in the USA during 2020 are far higher than occurred during 2019.

This edition looks at COVID deaths in each state by month, including an extrapolated estimate for November. We estimate that at least 21 states will experience their largest monthly COVID death volume this month (November). Nationwide, 44% more COVID deaths occurred from November 1-15 than occurred from October 1-15.

Our COVID tabulations this week looked at the weekly number of new cases that have occurred since mid-March, a timeframe spanning 31 weeks, and identified within each state where the most recent week (defined as October 5-12) ranked in terms of new confirmed cases. In 21 states, October 5-12 represented the highest volume of weekly new cases the state has experienced. In another four states, this past week brought their second-highest new case volume.

This edition of our 5 Slide Series provides a state level analysis of monthly new cases and deaths over the course of the pandemic. Nationally, new cases and deaths decreased in September as compared to August, but many states experienced their peak in September. The percentage of confirmed cases in the US represented just 2.2% of the entire population, and 2.9% of these cases resulted in death.

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